diff --git a/backend/src/alphapulse/calendar/archives.py b/backend/src/alphapulse/calendar/archives.py
index 3c4faae..6603540 100644
--- a/backend/src/alphapulse/calendar/archives.py
+++ b/backend/src/alphapulse/calendar/archives.py
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
"""官方当期公告解析；归档内容不被标为公布时就已采集的原始版本。"""
import re
from dataclasses import dataclass
-from datetime import UTC, datetime
+from datetime import UTC, datetime, timedelta
from parsel import Selector
@@ -20,6 +20,37 @@ class Announcement:
values: dict
+def parse_umich_report(text: str) -> Announcement:
+ """取当期 PDF 最后一列；前十二列只是报告当时所列历史值。"""
+ text = compact(text)
+ # 2026-02 PDF 的首字母 P 是单独的文字块，提取后与 reliminary 之间有换行。
+ heading = re.search(r"(?:P\s*reliminary results from the (" + MONTH_PATTERN + r") (20\d\d) survey|(" +
+ MONTH_PATTERN + r") (20\d\d) survey results)\s+(" + MONTH_PATTERN + r" \d{1,2}, 20\d\d)", text)
+ if heading is None:
+ raise ValueError("密歇根历史报告缺少统计期、发布阶段或正式日期")
+ month, year = (heading[1], heading[2]) if heading[1] else (heading[3], heading[4])
+ period = f"{year}-{MONTHS[month]:02d}"
+ stage = "preliminary" if heading[1] else "final"
+ at = datetime.strptime(heading[5], "%B %d, %Y").replace(hour=10, tzinfo=EASTERN).astimezone(UTC)
+ table = re.search(r"((?:[A-Z][a-z]{2}\s+){13})((?:(?:20\d\d|Prelim)\s+){13})"
+ r"Index of Consumer Sentiment\s+((?:\d+(?:\.\d+)?\s+){13})Current Economic Conditions", text)
+ if table is None:
+ raise ValueError("密歇根历史报告缺少完整的消费者信心表头或数值行")
+ months, years, values = (group.split() for group in table.groups())
+ current = datetime(int(year), MONTHS[month], 1)
+ previous = (current - timedelta(days=1)).strftime("%Y-%m")
+ # 初值最后一列表头用 Prelim 代替年份；其他十二列必须与统计月份逐列一致。
+ for index in range(13):
+ expected_month = (current.month - 1 + index) % 12 + 1
+ expected_year = current.year - 1 + (current.month - 1 + index) // 12
+ expected_label = "Prelim" if index == 12 and stage == "preliminary" else str(expected_year)
+ if months[index] != datetime(2000, expected_month, 1).strftime("%b") or years[index] != expected_label:
+ raise ValueError("密歇根历史报告表头与统计期或发布阶段不符")
+ return Announcement(at, period, stage, {"umich_sentiment": {
+ "actual": number(values[-1]), "previous": number(values[-2]), "previous_basis": f"{previous} 官方上月终值",
+ }})
+
+
def signed(match: re.Match) -> str:
sign = "-" if match[1].lower() in {"declined", "decreased", "fell", "edged down", "moved down"} else ""
return number(sign + match[2])
diff --git a/backend/src/alphapulse/calendar/umich.py b/backend/src/alphapulse/calendar/umich.py
index 822f7ad..855aaa5 100644
--- a/backend/src/alphapulse/calendar/umich.py
+++ b/backend/src/alphapulse/calendar/umich.py
@@ -29,6 +29,28 @@ def document_links(body: str, base: str, labels: set[str]) -> dict[str, str]:
return {label: links[label] for label in labels if label in links}
+def report_links(body: str, year: int) -> dict[tuple[str, str], str]:
+ """年度索引只取初值、终值报告，不把数据手册或专题报告当作当期公告。"""
+ sel = Selector(text=body, type="html")
+ if compact(sel.css("#report_heading .title").xpath("string(.)").get()) != f"{year} Reports":
+ raise ValueError("密歇根历史报告索引年份不符")
+ reports = {}
+ for node in sel.css("a[href]"):
+ match = re.fullmatch(r"([A-Z][a-z]+) (Preliminary|Final) Results", compact(node.xpath("string(.)").get()))
+ if match is None:
+ continue
+ identity = (f"{year}-{MONTHS[match[1]]:02d}", "preliminary" if match[2] == "Preliminary" else "final")
+ url = urljoin("https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/", node.attrib["href"])
+ if not re.fullmatch(r"https://data\.sca\.isr\.umich\.edu/fetchdoc\.php\?docid=\d+", url):
+ raise ValueError("密歇根历史报告链接不是官方文档地址")
+ if identity in reports:
+ raise ValueError("密歇根历史报告索引存在重复期次")
+ reports[identity] = url
+ if not reports:
+ raise ValueError("密歇根年度索引没有可识别的初值或终值报告")
+ return reports
+
+
def parse_schedule(text: str) -> list[Scheduled]:
events = []
# 历史 PDF 明确列出调查月份、初值日期和终值日期，包括跨月公布。
diff --git a/backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2025-01-final.txt b/backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2025-01-final.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4757f7a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2025-01-final.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+© The University of Michigan, 2025. All rights reserved.
+
+
+
+
+ Monitoring trends for over 75 years
+
+January 2025 survey results January 24, 2025
+Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director
+Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in six months, edging down 4%
+from December. While assessments of personal finances inched up for the
+fifth consecutive month, all other index components pulled back. Indeed,
+sentiment declines were broad based and seen across incomes, wealth, and
+age groups. Buying conditions for durables softened but remained about
+30% better than six months ago amid persistent views that purchasing now
+would avoid future price increases. Despite reporting stronger incomes
+this month, concerns about unemployment rose; about 47% of consumers
+expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest since the
+pandemic recession. January’s data closed on Inauguration Day, and
+consumers of all political leanings will continue to refine their views as Trump’s policies are clarified and implemented.
+Year-ahead inflation expectations soared from 2.8% last month to 3.3% this month. The current reading is the highest since
+May 2024 and is above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations rose
+from 3.0% last month to 3.2% this month, the same reading seen in November 2024. For both the short and long run,
+inflation expectations rose across income and educational groups. Concerns over the future trajectory of inflation were
+visible throughout the interviews and were tied to beliefs about anticipated policies like tariffs. Consumers continued to
+spontaneously express motives for buying-in-advance to avoid future price increases, and robust auto and retail sales data
+suggest that consumers are indeed acting on these views.
+Consumers’ concerns over the path of inflation appear closely tied to their views on anticipated economic policies under
+the new president. Since the election, inflation expectations have risen for Democrats and fallen for Republicans. These
+trends are consistent with historical patterns. During the Trump to Biden transition, the inflation expectations of Republicans
+and Democrats similarly rotated around the national average, albeit against a backdrop of sustained low inflation in the
+2010s. This month’s interviews make it abundantly clear that the current divergence in inflation expectations is shaped by
+beliefs about future policy, rather than a form of political expression divorced from economic factors.
+In January, consumers were asked if they thought higher tariffs would be better for the economy, or if lower tariffs would
+be better, or if tariff policy would make no difference for the economy. As seen in the chart, about 19% of consumers
+reported higher tariffs would be better for the economy, while 62% favored lower tariffs. Strikingly, those favoring higher
+tariffs had much lower inflation expectations, both year-ahead and long-run, than those favoring lower tariffs and those who
+believed tariff policy has little economic impact. These patterns suggest that consumers expect Trump to hold true to his
+plan to hike tariffs and have incorporated the anticipated policy change into their economic expectations.
+Responses to the tariff question were not fully correlated with party affiliation; less than half of Republicans reported that
+higher tariffs would be better for the economy. Younger, more-educated, or higher-income consumers were more likely to
+favor lower tariffs for the economy. Note that the interview focused on the perceived impact of tariffs on the economy,
+rather than the overall policy preferences of the consumer. Some consumers may believe that lower tariffs are better for the
+economy but prefer higher tariffs for non-economic reasons, say as a negotiating strategy or to advance other goals.
+Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
+2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2025
+Index of Consumer Sentiment 79.0 76.9 79.4 77.2 69.1 68.2 66.4 67.9 70.1 70.5 71.8 74.0 71.1
+Current Economic Conditions 81.9 79.4 82.5 79.0 69.6 65.9 62.7 61.3 63.3 64.9 63.9 75.1 74.0
+Index of Consumer Expectations 77.1 75.2 77.4 76.0 68.8 69.6 68.8 72.1 74.4 74.1 76.9 73.3 69.3
+Index Components
+Personal Finances - Current 100 98 104 95 91 81 79 79 80 81 82 85 86
+Personal Finances - Expected 122 116 122 116 111 106 105 108 111 110 116 111 108
+Economic Outlook - 12 Months 93 93 95 92 79 84 86 88 93 92 97 88 81
+Economic Outlook - 5 Years 94 92 94 96 84 88 84 92 94 95 96 94 88
+Buying Conditions - Durables 111 106 109 109 88 88 81 78 82 85 82 108 104
+-1
+0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+Higher Tariffs
+Better for Economy
+(19% of Consumers)
+Lower Tariffs
+Better for Economy
+(62% of Consumers)
+No Difference
+for Economy
+(19% of Consumers)
+Median Inflation Expectations %
+Inflation Expectations Reflect Views on Policies
+Consumers who Favor Higher Tariffs Expect Lower Inflation
+Year-Ahead Inflation
+Expectations
+Long-Run Inflation
+Expectations
diff --git a/backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2025-01-preliminary.txt b/backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2025-01-preliminary.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c4c0440
--- /dev/null
+++ b/backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2025-01-preliminary.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+© The University of Michigan, 2025. All rights reserved.
+
+
+
+
+ Monitoring trends for over 75 years
+
+Preliminary results from the January 2025 survey January 10, 2025
+Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director
+Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged in January, inching down
+less than one index point from December, well within the margin of error.
+Assessments of personal finances improved about 5%, while the economic
+outlook fell back 7% for the short run and 5% for the long r un. January’s
+divergence in views of the present and the future reflects easing concerns
+over the current cost of living this month, but surging worries over the future
+path of inflation. Overall, this month’s deterioration in the expectations index
+was se en acro ss political affiliation s, including decline s of about 3% for
+Independents and 1.5% for Republicans.
+Year-ahead inflation expectations soared from 2.8% last month to 3.3% this month. The current reading is the highest since
+May 2024 and is above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations rose
+from 3.0% last month to 3.3% this month. This is only the third time in the last four years that long-run expectations have
+exhibited such a large one -month change. For both the short and long run , inflation expectations rose across multiple
+demographic groups, with particularly strong increases among lower -income co nsumers and Independents. Note that
+inflation uncertainty—as estimated using the interquartile range in inflation expectations —has climbed considerably over
+the past year, though it remains well below levels seen in the 1970s (see chart). October 2024’s special report provides
+additional context for understanding the path of long-run inflation expectations over the last seven years.
+Inflation expectations are being shaped by beliefs about future policy. The share of consumers worried about the prospect
+of tariff hikes continues to rise. Nearly one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs, up from 24% in December
+and less than 2% prior to the election. These consumers generally report that tariff hikes will pass through to consumers in
+the form of higher prices, thus pushing up their inflation expectations.
+Concerningly, recent data show an emergence of inflationary psychology —motives for buying-in-advance to avoid future
+price increases, the proliferation of which would generate further momentum for inf lation. Like in December, 22% of
+consumers this month reported that purchasing durables now would enable buyers to avoid future price hikes, the highest
+since 1990. That said, these buy-in-advance price rationales were far more prevalent in the 1970s, averaging 41% in 1978.
+Expectations for the future weakened on other dimensions as well. Half of consumers expect unemployment rates to rise in
+the year ahead, up from 40% last month and 31% a year ago. This month’s worsening was concentrated among Independents
+and Republicans. Consumers’ expectations over their own income growth also fell from last month in both nominal and real
+terms. Only one-third of consumers expect interest rates to fall over the next year, down from 41% in December and falling
+for the fourth straight month. All told, consumers perceive numerous sources of downside risk to the economy.
+Despite their worries for the future, consumers are fully aware that current inflation has slowed over the past two or so
+years. In fact, the 4% increase in Current Conditions this month was largely supported by softening worries over current
+prices. About 32% of consumers spontaneously cited high prices as weighing down their personal finances, down from 47%
+in August 2024 and the lowest seen since February 2022. For buying conditions for large purchases, spontaneous mentions
+of high prices have fallen over the last five months for durable goods and are the lowest since May 2021 for vehicles.
+Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
+2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 Prelim
+Index of Consumer Sentiment 79.0 76.9 79.4 77.2 69.1 68.2 66.4 67.9 70.1 70.5 71.8 74.0 73.2
+Current Economic Conditions 81.9 79.4 82.5 79.0 69.6 65.9 62.7 61.3 63.3 64.9 63.9 75.1 77.9
+Index of Consumer Expectations 77.1 75.2 77.4 76.0 68.8 69.6 68.8 72.1 74.4 74.1 76.9 73.3 70.2
+Index Components
+Personal Finances - Current 100 98 104 95 91 81 79 79 80 81 82 85 89
+Personal Finances - Expected 122 116 122 116 111 106 105 108 111 110 116 111 110
+Economic Outlook - 12 Months 93 93 95 92 79 84 86 88 93 92 97 88 82
+Economic Outlook - 5 Years 94 92 94 96 84 88 84 92 94 95 96 94 89
+Buying Conditions - Durables 111 106 109 109 88 88 81 78 82 85 82 108 112
+0
+2
+4
+6
+8
+10
+1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
+Uncertainty - Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations
+Uncertainty - 5-10 Year Inflation Expectations
+Consumers Express Rising Uncertainty Over Path of Inflation
+Uncertainty Estimated by 75th Percentile – 25th Percentile of Expectations
+3-Month Moving Averages
+University of Michigan, January 10, 2025
diff --git a/backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2025-07-final.txt b/backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2025-07-final.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..64a2e74
--- /dev/null
+++ b/backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2025-07-final.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
+© The University of Michigan, 2025. All rights reserved.
+
+
+
+
+ Monitoring trends for over 75 years
+
+July 2025 survey results August 1, 2025
+Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director
+Consumer sentiment improved for the second straight month, inching up
+a scant single index point from June. Current conditions rose about 5% to
+its highest reading since February 2025, while the expectations index fell
+slightly. A rise in sentiment among stock holders was partially offset by a
+decline among consumers who do not own stocks . Perceptions of this
+month’s economic developments were similar across the political
+spectrum; Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all saw some minor
+increases in sentiment this month. Although recent trends show sentiment
+moving in a favorable direction, sentiment remains broadly negative.
+Consumers are hardly optimistic about the trajectory of the economy, even as their worries have softened since April 2025.
+Year-ahead inflation expectations fell for a second straight month, plunging from 5.0% last month to 4.5% this month. This
+is the lowest reading since February 2025 but above December 2024 just after the election. Long-run inflation expectations
+receded for the third consecut ive month, falling back from 4.0% in June to 3.4% in July. This is the lowest reading since
+January 2025 but, again, still considerably higher than the December 2024 reading.
+Labor market expectations improved just a touch but remain considerably weaker than a year ago. About 57% of consumers
+expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, down from the two-thirds seen in March and April, but well above the 35%
+seen a year ago (see chart, red solid line). Aside from the last five months, this is the highest reading since 2009. Moreover,
+consumers continue to perceive elevated risks of personal job loss (see chart, black dotted line). Expectations of own
+incomes remain extremely low and are less than half of what was seen in December 2024.
+Sentiment this year has tracked the salience of tariffs to consumers. The share of consumers spontaneously offering
+comments about tariffs has fallen from a height of two-thirds of consumers in May to 57%, still a solid majority, in July.
+While tariff policy appears to be stabilizing below the levels threatened in April, recent announcements include tariff rates
+that are still very high from a historical perspective. Tariff concerns are particularly strong among higher -income, high-
+stock-wealth, and college-educated consumers. These consumers note that their personal finances have been boosted by
+strong asset values, but their personal views of the economy are still relatively gloomy, which presents its own risks given
+their large contribution to aggregate spending.
+Overall, the survey reveals risks to both of the Fed’s mandates. While inflation expectations have fallen considerably from
+the initial shock of the April tariff threats, they remain notably higher than the pre-pandemic period. Consumers clearly do
+not believe that the risk of accelerating inflation has passed. Meanwhile, expectations remain poor for business conditions
+and elevated for unemployment; critically, consumers anticipate they may be personally affected. Despite recent
+improvements, this combination of views is consistent with a slowdown in spending, as consumers may respond to these
+risks with more cautious financial behavior. At the same time, a cautionary pullback in spending could potentially mediate
+any inflationary effects of tariffs.
+Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
+2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025
+Index of Consumer Sentiment 66.4 67.9 70.1 70.5 71.8 74.0 71.7 64.7 57.0 52.2 52.2 60.7 61.7
+Current Economic Conditions 62.7 61.3 63.3 64.9 63.9 75.1 75.1 65.7 63.8 59.8 58.9 64.8 68.0
+Index of Consumer Expectations 68.8 72.1 74.4 74.1 76.9 73.3 69.5 64.0 52.6 47.3 47.9 58.1 57.7
+Index Components
+Personal Finances - Current 79 79 80 81 82 85 87 82 74 71 67 78 83
+Personal Finances - Expected 105 108 111 110 116 111 109 99 86 78 79 94 91
+Economic Outlook - 12 Months 86 88 93 92 97 88 81 73 56 48 50 63 66
+Economic Outlook - 5 Years 84 92 94 95 96 94 88 83 66 60 60 74 72
+Buying Conditions - Durables 81 78 82 85 82 108 106 86 89 82 83 88 91
+13
+15
+17
+19
+21
+23
+25
+0
+10
+20
+30
+40
+50
+60
+70
+80
+1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025
+Probability of Losing a Job During the
+Next 5 Years (3-Month Movng Average)
+% of Consumers Expecting More Unemployment
+During the Next Year (3-Month Moving Average)
+Despite Recent Improvements, Consumers Still
+Anticipate Rising Unemployment and Elevated
+Risks of Personal Job Loss
diff --git a/backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2026-02-preliminary.txt b/backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2026-02-preliminary.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b5265a4
--- /dev/null
+++ b/backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2026-02-preliminary.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,73 @@
+© The University of Michigan, 2026. All rights reserved.
+ Monitoring trends for over 75 years
+P
+reliminary results from the February 2026 survey February 6, 2026
+Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director
+Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than
+one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January
+2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock
+portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for
+consumers without stock holdings . On net, modest increases in
+current personal finances and buying conditions for durables were
+offset by a small decline in long- run business conditions. W hile
+sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly
+increases have been small—well under the margin of error—and the
+overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical
+Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
+2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 Prelim
+Index of Consumer Sentiment 64.7 57.0 52.2 52.2 60.7 61.7 58.2 55.1 53.6 51.0 52.9 56.4 57.3
+Current Economic Conditions 65.7 63.8 59.8 58.9 64.8 68.0 61.7 60.4 58.6 51.1 50.4 55.4 58.3
+Index of Consumer Expectations 64.0 52.6 47.3 47.9 58.1 57.7 55.9 51.7 50.3 51.0 54.6 57.0 56.6
+Index Components
+Personal Finances - Current 82 74 71 67 78 83 77 76 78 66 68 74 77
+Personal Finances - Expected 99 86 78 79 94 91 91 86 82 85 93 95 95
+Economic Outlook - 12 Months 73 56 48 50 63 66 61 57 57 56 59 63 64
+Economic Outlook - 5 Years 83 66 60 60 74 72 70 62 59 61 64 68 65
+Buying Conditions - Durables 86 89 82 83 88 91 80 78 72 64 60 67 72
+40
+50
+60
+70
+80
+90
+100
+110
+2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
+Index of Consumer Sentiment
+Top Tercile of Stock
+Holdings, 3mma
+No Stock Holdings,
+3mma
+Wealth Gaps in Sentiment Continue to Widen,
+Mirroring Trends Seen in 2023 and 2024
+
+perspective. Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to
+
+be
+widespread. Interviews for this release cover the two-week period that ended this past Monday.
+Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.0% last month to 3.5 % this month, the lowest reading since January 2025.
+This month’s reading still exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-
+pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched up for the second straight month, from 3.3% last month to 3.4% this
+month. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8% and 3.2% in 2024, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020.
+Overall views of labor markets remain considerably weaker than a year ago, though changes from last month are a bit mixed.
+This month, a substantial 60% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, down a touch from January
+and the lowest share seen since July 2025. Meanwhile, the expected probability of own job loss climbed to its highest
+reading since July 2020. Thus, consumers continue to perceive risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate.
+While views of the economy converged across population subgroups last spring amid announcements of the new tariff
+regimes, the 10 or so months thereafter have been characterized by a sharp divergence between higher -wealth, higher-
+income consumers and their lower-wealth, lower-income counterparts. As seen in the chart, sentiment for the largest
+stockholders is currently nearly 50% higher than May 2025, when national sentiment reached a trough. In contrast,
+sentiment for non-stockholders fell 6% during this period.
+These trends are consistent with the fact that asset values have soared, which benefits asset owners but not others. Notably,
+similar divergent patterns in sentiment were seen in 2023-2024 as well. Sentiment for high and low wealth groups converged
+in 2022 when post -Covid inflation peaked. In the two years that followed , sentiment for the wealthy soared while it
+languished for lower-wealth consumers. As such, the K-shape of sentiment seen over the past year is not a new phenomenon.
+These patterns highlight the ongoing heterogeneity in experiences and expectations for the economy that are obscured by
+headline aggregate statistics about the economy. Robust aggregate spending is consistent both with strength stemming from
+the disproportionate share of spending generated by wealthier consumers who are more confident, as well as the fact that
+less-confident, lower-wealth consumers may be exercising much more care over their spending amid pressures from high
+prices and weakening income prospects.
+Top Tercile of
+Stock Holdings
+Feb-2026 (monthly)
+No Stock Holdings Feb-2026 (monthly)
diff --git a/backend/tests/test_calendar_history.py b/backend/tests/test_calendar_history.py
index 4ba4a03..5643f6e 100644
--- a/backend/tests/test_calendar_history.py
+++ b/backend/tests/test_calendar_history.py
@@ -1,12 +1,57 @@
import asyncio
from datetime import UTC, date, datetime
+from pathlib import Path
from types import SimpleNamespace
import pytest
-from alphapulse.calendar.archives import parse_announcements, parse_bls_text
+from alphapulse.calendar.archives import parse_announcements, parse_bls_text, parse_umich_report
from alphapulse.calendar.parsers import bls_periods, release_metadata
-from alphapulse.calendar.umich import current_result, monthly_series, parse_schedule
+from alphapulse.calendar.umich import current_result, monthly_series, parse_schedule, report_links
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("name,stage,at,actual,previous", [
+ ("2025-01-preliminary", "preliminary", datetime(2025, 1, 10, 15, tzinfo=UTC), "73.2", "74.0"),
+ ("2025-01-final", "final", datetime(2025, 1, 24, 15, tzinfo=UTC), "71.1", "74.0"),
+ ("2025-07-final", "final", datetime(2025, 8, 1, 14, tzinfo=UTC), "61.7", "60.7"),
+ ("2026-02-preliminary", "preliminary", datetime(2026, 2, 6, 15, tzinfo=UTC), "57.3", "56.4"),
+])
+def test_umich_report_preserves_original_vintage_stage_and_real_publication_date(name, stage, at, actual, previous):
+ body = (Path(__file__).parent / "fixtures/calendar" / f"umich-{name}.txt").read_text()
+ result = parse_umich_report(body)
+ assert (result.period, result.stage, result.at) == (name[:7], stage, at)
+ assert result.values["umich_sentiment"]["actual"] == actual
+ assert result.values["umich_sentiment"]["previous"] == previous
+
+
+@pytest.mark.parametrize("old,new", [
+ ("January 2025 survey results", "February 2025 survey results"),
+ ("2024 2024 2024 2025", "2024 2024 2024 Prelim"),
+ ("74.0 71.1", "74.0"),
+ ("January 24, 2025", "Date unavailable"),
+])
+def test_umich_report_rejects_inconsistent_header_missing_value_or_missing_date(old, new):
+ body = (Path(__file__).parent / "fixtures/calendar/umich-2025-01-final.txt").read_text()
+ assert old in body
+ with pytest.raises(ValueError):
+ parse_umich_report(body.replace(old, new))
+
+
+def test_umich_index_only_accepts_official_stage_reports_for_the_requested_year():
+ body = '''2025 Reports
+ January Preliminary Results
+ January Final Results
+ January Data Booklet
+ Revisions to Estimates'''
+ assert report_links(body, 2025) == {
+ ("2025-01", "preliminary"): "https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=1",
+ ("2025-01", "final"): "https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=2",
+ }
+ for invalid in (body.replace("2025 Reports", "2026 Reports"),
+ body.replace("fetchdoc.php?docid=1", "https://example.com/foreign.pdf"),
+ body + 'January Final Results'):
+ with pytest.raises(ValueError):
+ report_links(invalid, 2025)
@pytest.mark.parametrize("title,period,stage", [