Parse official Michigan survey archive reports
Extract original preliminary and final results with publication dates and validated table headers. Add annual report discovery and real report fixtures covering cross-month releases and PDF text layout differences.
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© The University of Michigan, 2025. All rights reserved.
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Monitoring trends for over 75 years
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January 2025 survey results January 24, 2025
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Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director
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Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in six months, edging down 4%
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from December. While assessments of personal finances inched up for the
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fifth consecutive month, all other index components pulled back. Indeed,
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sentiment declines were broad based and seen across incomes, wealth, and
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age groups. Buying conditions for durables softened but remained about
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30% better than six months ago amid persistent views that purchasing now
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would avoid future price increases. Despite reporting stronger incomes
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this month, concerns about unemployment rose; about 47% of consumers
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expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest since the
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pandemic recession. January’s data closed on Inauguration Day, and
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consumers of all political leanings will continue to refine their views as Trump’s policies are clarified and implemented.
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Year-ahead inflation expectations soared from 2.8% last month to 3.3% this month. The current reading is the highest since
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May 2024 and is above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations rose
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from 3.0% last month to 3.2% this month, the same reading seen in November 2024. For both the short and long run,
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inflation expectations rose across income and educational groups. Concerns over the future trajectory of inflation were
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visible throughout the interviews and were tied to beliefs about anticipated policies like tariffs. Consumers continued to
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spontaneously express motives for buying-in-advance to avoid future price increases, and robust auto and retail sales data
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suggest that consumers are indeed acting on these views.
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Consumers’ concerns over the path of inflation appear closely tied to their views on anticipated economic policies under
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the new president. Since the election, inflation expectations have risen for Democrats and fallen for Republicans. These
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trends are consistent with historical patterns. During the Trump to Biden transition, the inflation expectations of Republicans
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and Democrats similarly rotated around the national average, albeit against a backdrop of sustained low inflation in the
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2010s. This month’s interviews make it abundantly clear that the current divergence in inflation expectations is shaped by
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beliefs about future policy, rather than a form of political expression divorced from economic factors.
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In January, consumers were asked if they thought higher tariffs would be better for the economy, or if lower tariffs would
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be better, or if tariff policy would make no difference for the economy. As seen in the chart, about 19% of consumers
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reported higher tariffs would be better for the economy, while 62% favored lower tariffs. Strikingly, those favoring higher
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tariffs had much lower inflation expectations, both year-ahead and long-run, than those favoring lower tariffs and those who
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believed tariff policy has little economic impact. These patterns suggest that consumers expect Trump to hold true to his
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plan to hike tariffs and have incorporated the anticipated policy change into their economic expectations.
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Responses to the tariff question were not fully correlated with party affiliation; less than half of Republicans reported that
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higher tariffs would be better for the economy. Younger, more-educated, or higher-income consumers were more likely to
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favor lower tariffs for the economy. Note that the interview focused on the perceived impact of tariffs on the economy,
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rather than the overall policy preferences of the consumer. Some consumers may believe that lower tariffs are better for the
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economy but prefer higher tariffs for non-economic reasons, say as a negotiating strategy or to advance other goals.
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
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2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2025
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Index of Consumer Sentiment 79.0 76.9 79.4 77.2 69.1 68.2 66.4 67.9 70.1 70.5 71.8 74.0 71.1
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Current Economic Conditions 81.9 79.4 82.5 79.0 69.6 65.9 62.7 61.3 63.3 64.9 63.9 75.1 74.0
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Index of Consumer Expectations 77.1 75.2 77.4 76.0 68.8 69.6 68.8 72.1 74.4 74.1 76.9 73.3 69.3
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Index Components
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Personal Finances - Current 100 98 104 95 91 81 79 79 80 81 82 85 86
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Personal Finances - Expected 122 116 122 116 111 106 105 108 111 110 116 111 108
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Economic Outlook - 12 Months 93 93 95 92 79 84 86 88 93 92 97 88 81
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Economic Outlook - 5 Years 94 92 94 96 84 88 84 92 94 95 96 94 88
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Buying Conditions - Durables 111 106 109 109 88 88 81 78 82 85 82 108 104
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-1
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0
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1
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2
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3
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4
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5
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Higher Tariffs
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Better for Economy
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(19% of Consumers)
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Lower Tariffs
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Better for Economy
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(62% of Consumers)
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No Difference
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for Economy
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(19% of Consumers)
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Median Inflation Expectations %
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Inflation Expectations Reflect Views on Policies
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Consumers who Favor Higher Tariffs Expect Lower Inflation
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Year-Ahead Inflation
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Expectations
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Long-Run Inflation
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Expectations
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© The University of Michigan, 2025. All rights reserved.
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Monitoring trends for over 75 years
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Preliminary results from the January 2025 survey January 10, 2025
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Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director
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Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged in January, inching down
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less than one index point from December, well within the margin of error.
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Assessments of personal finances improved about 5%, while the economic
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outlook fell back 7% for the short run and 5% for the long r un. January’s
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divergence in views of the present and the future reflects easing concerns
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over the current cost of living this month, but surging worries over the future
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path of inflation. Overall, this month’s deterioration in the expectations index
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was se en acro ss political affiliation s, including decline s of about 3% for
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Independents and 1.5% for Republicans.
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Year-ahead inflation expectations soared from 2.8% last month to 3.3% this month. The current reading is the highest since
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May 2024 and is above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations rose
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from 3.0% last month to 3.3% this month. This is only the third time in the last four years that long-run expectations have
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exhibited such a large one -month change. For both the short and long run , inflation expectations rose across multiple
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demographic groups, with particularly strong increases among lower -income co nsumers and Independents. Note that
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inflation uncertainty—as estimated using the interquartile range in inflation expectations —has climbed considerably over
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the past year, though it remains well below levels seen in the 1970s (see chart). October 2024’s special report provides
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additional context for understanding the path of long-run inflation expectations over the last seven years.
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Inflation expectations are being shaped by beliefs about future policy. The share of consumers worried about the prospect
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of tariff hikes continues to rise. Nearly one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs, up from 24% in December
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and less than 2% prior to the election. These consumers generally report that tariff hikes will pass through to consumers in
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the form of higher prices, thus pushing up their inflation expectations.
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Concerningly, recent data show an emergence of inflationary psychology —motives for buying-in-advance to avoid future
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price increases, the proliferation of which would generate further momentum for inf lation. Like in December, 22% of
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consumers this month reported that purchasing durables now would enable buyers to avoid future price hikes, the highest
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since 1990. That said, these buy-in-advance price rationales were far more prevalent in the 1970s, averaging 41% in 1978.
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Expectations for the future weakened on other dimensions as well. Half of consumers expect unemployment rates to rise in
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the year ahead, up from 40% last month and 31% a year ago. This month’s worsening was concentrated among Independents
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and Republicans. Consumers’ expectations over their own income growth also fell from last month in both nominal and real
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terms. Only one-third of consumers expect interest rates to fall over the next year, down from 41% in December and falling
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for the fourth straight month. All told, consumers perceive numerous sources of downside risk to the economy.
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Despite their worries for the future, consumers are fully aware that current inflation has slowed over the past two or so
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years. In fact, the 4% increase in Current Conditions this month was largely supported by softening worries over current
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prices. About 32% of consumers spontaneously cited high prices as weighing down their personal finances, down from 47%
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in August 2024 and the lowest seen since February 2022. For buying conditions for large purchases, spontaneous mentions
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of high prices have fallen over the last five months for durable goods and are the lowest since May 2021 for vehicles.
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
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2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 Prelim
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Index of Consumer Sentiment 79.0 76.9 79.4 77.2 69.1 68.2 66.4 67.9 70.1 70.5 71.8 74.0 73.2
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Current Economic Conditions 81.9 79.4 82.5 79.0 69.6 65.9 62.7 61.3 63.3 64.9 63.9 75.1 77.9
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Index of Consumer Expectations 77.1 75.2 77.4 76.0 68.8 69.6 68.8 72.1 74.4 74.1 76.9 73.3 70.2
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Index Components
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Personal Finances - Current 100 98 104 95 91 81 79 79 80 81 82 85 89
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Personal Finances - Expected 122 116 122 116 111 106 105 108 111 110 116 111 110
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Economic Outlook - 12 Months 93 93 95 92 79 84 86 88 93 92 97 88 82
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Economic Outlook - 5 Years 94 92 94 96 84 88 84 92 94 95 96 94 89
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Buying Conditions - Durables 111 106 109 109 88 88 81 78 82 85 82 108 112
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0
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6
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10
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1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
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Uncertainty - Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations
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Uncertainty - 5-10 Year Inflation Expectations
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Consumers Express Rising Uncertainty Over Path of Inflation
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Uncertainty Estimated by 75th Percentile – 25th Percentile of Expectations
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3-Month Moving Averages
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University of Michigan, January 10, 2025
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© The University of Michigan, 2025. All rights reserved.
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Monitoring trends for over 75 years
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July 2025 survey results August 1, 2025
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Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director
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Consumer sentiment improved for the second straight month, inching up
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a scant single index point from June. Current conditions rose about 5% to
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its highest reading since February 2025, while the expectations index fell
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slightly. A rise in sentiment among stock holders was partially offset by a
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decline among consumers who do not own stocks . Perceptions of this
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month’s economic developments were similar across the political
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spectrum; Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all saw some minor
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increases in sentiment this month. Although recent trends show sentiment
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moving in a favorable direction, sentiment remains broadly negative.
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Consumers are hardly optimistic about the trajectory of the economy, even as their worries have softened since April 2025.
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Year-ahead inflation expectations fell for a second straight month, plunging from 5.0% last month to 4.5% this month. This
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is the lowest reading since February 2025 but above December 2024 just after the election. Long-run inflation expectations
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receded for the third consecut ive month, falling back from 4.0% in June to 3.4% in July. This is the lowest reading since
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January 2025 but, again, still considerably higher than the December 2024 reading.
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Labor market expectations improved just a touch but remain considerably weaker than a year ago. About 57% of consumers
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expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, down from the two-thirds seen in March and April, but well above the 35%
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seen a year ago (see chart, red solid line). Aside from the last five months, this is the highest reading since 2009. Moreover,
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consumers continue to perceive elevated risks of personal job loss (see chart, black dotted line). Expectations of own
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incomes remain extremely low and are less than half of what was seen in December 2024.
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Sentiment this year has tracked the salience of tariffs to consumers. The share of consumers spontaneously offering
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comments about tariffs has fallen from a height of two-thirds of consumers in May to 57%, still a solid majority, in July.
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While tariff policy appears to be stabilizing below the levels threatened in April, recent announcements include tariff rates
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that are still very high from a historical perspective. Tariff concerns are particularly strong among higher -income, high-
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stock-wealth, and college-educated consumers. These consumers note that their personal finances have been boosted by
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strong asset values, but their personal views of the economy are still relatively gloomy, which presents its own risks given
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their large contribution to aggregate spending.
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Overall, the survey reveals risks to both of the Fed’s mandates. While inflation expectations have fallen considerably from
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the initial shock of the April tariff threats, they remain notably higher than the pre-pandemic period. Consumers clearly do
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not believe that the risk of accelerating inflation has passed. Meanwhile, expectations remain poor for business conditions
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and elevated for unemployment; critically, consumers anticipate they may be personally affected. Despite recent
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improvements, this combination of views is consistent with a slowdown in spending, as consumers may respond to these
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risks with more cautious financial behavior. At the same time, a cautionary pullback in spending could potentially mediate
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any inflationary effects of tariffs.
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Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025
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Index of Consumer Sentiment 66.4 67.9 70.1 70.5 71.8 74.0 71.7 64.7 57.0 52.2 52.2 60.7 61.7
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Current Economic Conditions 62.7 61.3 63.3 64.9 63.9 75.1 75.1 65.7 63.8 59.8 58.9 64.8 68.0
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Index of Consumer Expectations 68.8 72.1 74.4 74.1 76.9 73.3 69.5 64.0 52.6 47.3 47.9 58.1 57.7
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Index Components
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Personal Finances - Current 79 79 80 81 82 85 87 82 74 71 67 78 83
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Personal Finances - Expected 105 108 111 110 116 111 109 99 86 78 79 94 91
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Economic Outlook - 12 Months 86 88 93 92 97 88 81 73 56 48 50 63 66
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Economic Outlook - 5 Years 84 92 94 95 96 94 88 83 66 60 60 74 72
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Buying Conditions - Durables 81 78 82 85 82 108 106 86 89 82 83 88 91
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13
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15
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17
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19
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21
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25
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0
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10
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20
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30
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40
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50
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60
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70
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80
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1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025
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Probability of Losing a Job During the
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Next 5 Years (3-Month Movng Average)
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% of Consumers Expecting More Unemployment
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During the Next Year (3-Month Moving Average)
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Despite Recent Improvements, Consumers Still
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Anticipate Rising Unemployment and Elevated
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Risks of Personal Job Loss
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© The University of Michigan, 2026. All rights reserved.
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Monitoring trends for over 75 years
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P
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reliminary results from the February 2026 survey February 6, 2026
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Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director
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Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than
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one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January
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2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock
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portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for
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consumers without stock holdings . On net, modest increases in
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current personal finances and buying conditions for durables were
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offset by a small decline in long- run business conditions. W hile
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sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly
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increases have been small—well under the margin of error—and the
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overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical
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Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
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2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 Prelim
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Index of Consumer Sentiment 64.7 57.0 52.2 52.2 60.7 61.7 58.2 55.1 53.6 51.0 52.9 56.4 57.3
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Current Economic Conditions 65.7 63.8 59.8 58.9 64.8 68.0 61.7 60.4 58.6 51.1 50.4 55.4 58.3
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Index of Consumer Expectations 64.0 52.6 47.3 47.9 58.1 57.7 55.9 51.7 50.3 51.0 54.6 57.0 56.6
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Index Components
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Personal Finances - Current 82 74 71 67 78 83 77 76 78 66 68 74 77
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Personal Finances - Expected 99 86 78 79 94 91 91 86 82 85 93 95 95
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Economic Outlook - 12 Months 73 56 48 50 63 66 61 57 57 56 59 63 64
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Economic Outlook - 5 Years 83 66 60 60 74 72 70 62 59 61 64 68 65
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Buying Conditions - Durables 86 89 82 83 88 91 80 78 72 64 60 67 72
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40
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50
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60
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70
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80
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90
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100
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110
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2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
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Index of Consumer Sentiment
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Top Tercile of Stock
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Holdings, 3mma
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No Stock Holdings,
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3mma
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Wealth Gaps in Sentiment Continue to Widen,
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Mirroring Trends Seen in 2023 and 2024
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perspective. Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to
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be
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widespread. Interviews for this release cover the two-week period that ended this past Monday.
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Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.0% last month to 3.5 % this month, the lowest reading since January 2025.
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This month’s reading still exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-
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pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched up for the second straight month, from 3.3% last month to 3.4% this
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month. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8% and 3.2% in 2024, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020.
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Overall views of labor markets remain considerably weaker than a year ago, though changes from last month are a bit mixed.
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This month, a substantial 60% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, down a touch from January
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and the lowest share seen since July 2025. Meanwhile, the expected probability of own job loss climbed to its highest
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reading since July 2020. Thus, consumers continue to perceive risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate.
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While views of the economy converged across population subgroups last spring amid announcements of the new tariff
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regimes, the 10 or so months thereafter have been characterized by a sharp divergence between higher -wealth, higher-
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income consumers and their lower-wealth, lower-income counterparts. As seen in the chart, sentiment for the largest
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stockholders is currently nearly 50% higher than May 2025, when national sentiment reached a trough. In contrast,
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sentiment for non-stockholders fell 6% during this period.
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These trends are consistent with the fact that asset values have soared, which benefits asset owners but not others. Notably,
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similar divergent patterns in sentiment were seen in 2023-2024 as well. Sentiment for high and low wealth groups converged
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in 2022 when post -Covid inflation peaked. In the two years that followed , sentiment for the wealthy soared while it
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languished for lower-wealth consumers. As such, the K-shape of sentiment seen over the past year is not a new phenomenon.
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These patterns highlight the ongoing heterogeneity in experiences and expectations for the economy that are obscured by
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headline aggregate statistics about the economy. Robust aggregate spending is consistent both with strength stemming from
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the disproportionate share of spending generated by wealthier consumers who are more confident, as well as the fact that
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less-confident, lower-wealth consumers may be exercising much more care over their spending amid pressures from high
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prices and weakening income prospects.
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Top Tercile of
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Stock Holdings
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Feb-2026 (monthly)
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No Stock Holdings Feb-2026 (monthly)
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