Parse official Michigan survey archive reports

Extract original preliminary and final results with publication dates and validated table headers. Add annual report discovery and real report fixtures covering cross-month releases and PDF text layout differences.

backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2025-07-final.txt

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+© The University of Michigan, 2025. All rights reserved.
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+ Monitoring trends for over 75 years
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+July 2025 survey results August 1, 2025
+Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director
+Consumer sentiment improved for the second straight month, inching up
+a scant single index point from June. Current conditions rose about 5% to
+its highest reading since February 2025, while the expectations index fell
+slightly. A rise in sentiment among stock holders was partially offset by a
+decline among consumers who do not own stocks . Perceptions of this
+month’s economic developments were similar across the political
+spectrum; Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all saw some minor
+increases in sentiment this month. Although recent trends show sentiment
+moving in a favorable direction, sentiment remains broadly negative.
+Consumers are hardly optimistic about the trajectory of the economy, even as their worries have softened since April 2025.
+Year-ahead inflation expectations fell for a second straight month, plunging from 5.0% last month to 4.5% this month. This
+is the lowest reading since February 2025 but above December 2024 just after the election. Long-run inflation expectations
+receded for the third consecut ive month, falling back from 4.0% in June to 3.4% in July. This is the lowest reading since
+January 2025 but, again, still considerably higher than the December 2024 reading.
+Labor market expectations improved just a touch but remain considerably weaker than a year ago. About 57% of consumers
+expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, down from the two-thirds seen in March and April, but well above the 35%
+seen a year ago (see chart, red solid line). Aside from the last five months, this is the highest reading since 2009. Moreover,
+consumers continue to perceive elevated risks of personal job loss (see chart, black dotted line). Expectations of own
+incomes remain extremely low and are less than half of what was seen in December 2024.
+Sentiment this year has tracked  the salience of tariffs to  consumers. The share of consumers spontaneously offering
+comments about tariffs has fallen from a height of two-thirds of consumers in May to 57%, still a solid majority, in July.
+While tariff policy appears to be stabilizing below the levels threatened in April, recent announcements include tariff rates
+that are still very high from a historical perspective. Tariff concerns are particularly strong among higher -income, high-
+stock-wealth, and college-educated consumers. These consumers note that their personal finances have been boosted by
+strong asset values, but their personal views of the economy are still relatively gloomy, which presents its own risks given
+their large contribution to aggregate spending.
+Overall, the survey reveals risks to both of the Fed’s mandates. While inflation expectations have fallen considerably from
+the initial shock of the April tariff threats, they remain notably higher than the pre-pandemic period. Consumers clearly do
+not believe that the risk of accelerating inflation has passed. Meanwhile, expectations remain poor for business conditions
+and elevated for unemployment; critically, consumers anticipate they may be personally affected. Despite recent
+improvements, this combination of views is consistent with a slowdown in spending, as consumers may respond to these
+risks with more cautious financial behavior. At the same time, a cautionary pullback in spending could potentially mediate
+any inflationary effects of tariffs.
+Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
+2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025
+Index of Consumer Sentiment 66.4 67.9 70.1 70.5 71.8 74.0 71.7 64.7 57.0 52.2 52.2 60.7 61.7
+Current Economic Conditions 62.7 61.3 63.3 64.9 63.9 75.1 75.1 65.7 63.8 59.8 58.9 64.8 68.0
+Index of Consumer Expectations 68.8 72.1 74.4 74.1 76.9 73.3 69.5 64.0 52.6 47.3 47.9 58.1 57.7
+Index Components
+Personal Finances - Current 79 79 80 81 82 85 87 82 74 71 67 78 83
+Personal Finances - Expected 105 108 111 110 116 111 109 99 86 78 79 94 91
+Economic Outlook - 12 Months 86 88 93 92 97 88 81 73 56 48 50 63 66
+Economic Outlook - 5 Years 84 92 94 95 96 94 88 83 66 60 60 74 72
+Buying Conditions - Durables 81 78 82 85 82 108 106 86 89 82 83 88 91
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+25
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+30
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+1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025
+Probability of Losing a Job During the
+Next 5 Years (3-Month Movng Average)
+% of Consumers Expecting More Unemployment
+During the Next Year (3-Month Moving Average)
+Despite Recent Improvements, Consumers Still
+Anticipate Rising Unemployment and Elevated
+Risks of Personal Job Loss