Parse official Michigan survey archive reports

Extract original preliminary and final results with publication dates and validated table headers. Add annual report discovery and real report fixtures covering cross-month releases and PDF text layout differences.

backend/tests/fixtures/calendar/umich-2026-02-preliminary.txt

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+© The University of Michigan, 2026. All rights reserved.
+ Monitoring trends for over 75 years
+P
+reliminary results from the February 2026 survey February 6, 2026
+Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director
+Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than
+one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January
+2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock
+portfolios, while it stagnated and remained  at dismal levels  for
+consumers without stock holdings . On net, modest increases in
+current personal finances and buying conditions for durables were
+offset by a small  decline in long- run business conditions. W hile
+sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly
+increases have been small—well under the margin of error—and the
+overall level of sentiment remains very low  from a historical
+Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
+2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 Prelim
+Index of Consumer Sentiment 64.7 57.0 52.2 52.2 60.7 61.7 58.2 55.1 53.6 51.0 52.9 56.4 57.3
+Current Economic Conditions 65.7 63.8 59.8 58.9 64.8 68.0 61.7 60.4 58.6 51.1 50.4 55.4 58.3
+Index of Consumer Expectations 64.0 52.6 47.3 47.9 58.1 57.7 55.9 51.7 50.3 51.0 54.6 57.0 56.6
+Index Components
+Personal Finances - Current 82 74 71 67 78 83 77 76 78 66 68 74 77
+Personal Finances - Expected 99 86 78 79 94 91 91 86 82 85 93 95 95
+Economic Outlook - 12 Months 73 56 48 50 63 66 61 57 57 56 59 63 64
+Economic Outlook - 5 Years 83 66 60 60 74 72 70 62 59 61 64 68 65
+Buying Conditions - Durables 86 89 82 83 88 91 80 78 72 64 60 67 72
+40
+50
+60
+70
+80
+90
+100
+110
+2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
+Index of Consumer Sentiment
+Top Tercile of Stock
+Holdings, 3mma
+No Stock Holdings,
+3mma
+Wealth Gaps in Sentiment Continue to Widen,
+Mirroring Trends Seen in 2023 and 2024
+
+perspective. Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to
+
+be
+widespread. Interviews for this release cover the two-week period that ended this past Monday.
+Year-ahead inflation expectations fell  from 4.0% last month to 3.5 % this month, the lowest reading since January 2025.
+This month’s reading still exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-
+pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched up for the second straight month, from 3.3% last month to 3.4% this
+month. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8% and 3.2% in 2024, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020.
+Overall views of labor markets remain considerably weaker than a year ago, though changes from last month are a bit mixed.
+This month, a substantial 60% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, down a touch from January
+and the lowest  share seen since July 2025. Meanwhile, the expected probability of own job loss climbed to its highest
+reading since July 2020. Thus, consumers continue to perceive risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate.
+While views of the economy converged across population subgroups last spring amid announcements of the new tariff
+regimes, the 10 or so months thereafter have been characterized by a sharp divergence between higher -wealth, higher-
+income consumers and their lower-wealth, lower-income counterparts. As seen in the chart, sentiment for the largest
+stockholders is currently nearly 50% higher than May 2025, when national sentiment reached a trough.  In contrast,
+sentiment for non-stockholders fell 6% during this period.
+These trends are consistent with the fact that asset values have soared, which benefits asset owners but not others. Notably,
+similar divergent patterns in sentiment were seen in 2023-2024 as well. Sentiment for high and low wealth groups converged
+in 2022 when post -Covid inflation peaked. In the two years  that followed , sentiment for the wealthy soared while it
+languished for lower-wealth consumers. As such, the K-shape of sentiment seen over the past year is not a new phenomenon.
+These patterns highlight the ongoing heterogeneity in experiences and expectations for the economy that are obscured by
+headline aggregate statistics about the economy. Robust aggregate spending is consistent both with strength stemming from
+the disproportionate share of spending generated by wealthier consumers who are more confident, as well as the fact that
+less-confident, lower-wealth consumers may be exercising much more care over their spending amid pressures from high
+prices and weakening income prospects.
+Top Tercile of
+Stock Holdings
+Feb-2026 (monthly)
+No Stock Holdings Feb-2026 (monthly)