eezd
da289686be
Extract original preliminary and final results with publication dates and validated table headers. Add annual report discovery and real report fixtures covering cross-month releases and PDF text layout differences.
74 lines
4.5 KiB
Plaintext
74 lines
4.5 KiB
Plaintext
© The University of Michigan, 2026. All rights reserved.
|
||
Monitoring trends for over 75 years
|
||
P
|
||
reliminary results from the February 2026 survey February 6, 2026
|
||
Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director
|
||
Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than
|
||
one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January
|
||
2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock
|
||
portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for
|
||
consumers without stock holdings . On net, modest increases in
|
||
current personal finances and buying conditions for durables were
|
||
offset by a small decline in long- run business conditions. W hile
|
||
sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly
|
||
increases have been small—well under the margin of error—and the
|
||
overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical
|
||
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
|
||
2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2025 2026 Prelim
|
||
Index of Consumer Sentiment 64.7 57.0 52.2 52.2 60.7 61.7 58.2 55.1 53.6 51.0 52.9 56.4 57.3
|
||
Current Economic Conditions 65.7 63.8 59.8 58.9 64.8 68.0 61.7 60.4 58.6 51.1 50.4 55.4 58.3
|
||
Index of Consumer Expectations 64.0 52.6 47.3 47.9 58.1 57.7 55.9 51.7 50.3 51.0 54.6 57.0 56.6
|
||
Index Components
|
||
Personal Finances - Current 82 74 71 67 78 83 77 76 78 66 68 74 77
|
||
Personal Finances - Expected 99 86 78 79 94 91 91 86 82 85 93 95 95
|
||
Economic Outlook - 12 Months 73 56 48 50 63 66 61 57 57 56 59 63 64
|
||
Economic Outlook - 5 Years 83 66 60 60 74 72 70 62 59 61 64 68 65
|
||
Buying Conditions - Durables 86 89 82 83 88 91 80 78 72 64 60 67 72
|
||
40
|
||
50
|
||
60
|
||
70
|
||
80
|
||
90
|
||
100
|
||
110
|
||
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
|
||
Index of Consumer Sentiment
|
||
Top Tercile of Stock
|
||
Holdings, 3mma
|
||
No Stock Holdings,
|
||
3mma
|
||
Wealth Gaps in Sentiment Continue to Widen,
|
||
Mirroring Trends Seen in 2023 and 2024
|
||
|
||
perspective. Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to
|
||
|
||
be
|
||
widespread. Interviews for this release cover the two-week period that ended this past Monday.
|
||
Year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 4.0% last month to 3.5 % this month, the lowest reading since January 2025.
|
||
This month’s reading still exceeds those seen in 2024 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-
|
||
pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched up for the second straight month, from 3.3% last month to 3.4% this
|
||
month. In comparison, readings ranged between 2.8% and 3.2% in 2024, and were below 2.8% throughout 2019 and 2020.
|
||
Overall views of labor markets remain considerably weaker than a year ago, though changes from last month are a bit mixed.
|
||
This month, a substantial 60% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, down a touch from January
|
||
and the lowest share seen since July 2025. Meanwhile, the expected probability of own job loss climbed to its highest
|
||
reading since July 2020. Thus, consumers continue to perceive risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate.
|
||
While views of the economy converged across population subgroups last spring amid announcements of the new tariff
|
||
regimes, the 10 or so months thereafter have been characterized by a sharp divergence between higher -wealth, higher-
|
||
income consumers and their lower-wealth, lower-income counterparts. As seen in the chart, sentiment for the largest
|
||
stockholders is currently nearly 50% higher than May 2025, when national sentiment reached a trough. In contrast,
|
||
sentiment for non-stockholders fell 6% during this period.
|
||
These trends are consistent with the fact that asset values have soared, which benefits asset owners but not others. Notably,
|
||
similar divergent patterns in sentiment were seen in 2023-2024 as well. Sentiment for high and low wealth groups converged
|
||
in 2022 when post -Covid inflation peaked. In the two years that followed , sentiment for the wealthy soared while it
|
||
languished for lower-wealth consumers. As such, the K-shape of sentiment seen over the past year is not a new phenomenon.
|
||
These patterns highlight the ongoing heterogeneity in experiences and expectations for the economy that are obscured by
|
||
headline aggregate statistics about the economy. Robust aggregate spending is consistent both with strength stemming from
|
||
the disproportionate share of spending generated by wealthier consumers who are more confident, as well as the fact that
|
||
less-confident, lower-wealth consumers may be exercising much more care over their spending amid pressures from high
|
||
prices and weakening income prospects.
|
||
Top Tercile of
|
||
Stock Holdings
|
||
Feb-2026 (monthly)
|
||
No Stock Holdings Feb-2026 (monthly)
|